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皇家彩票网平台可以吗:Great Wall Fund: The third quarter interest rate debt still has a downside. Select high-elastic stock convertible bonds

时间:2018/7/4 21:17:16  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: Looking back at the second quarter, the bond market fluctuated downwards in the context of weak macroeconomic fundamentals. Looking forward...

Looking back at the second quarter, the bond market fluctuated downwards in the context of weak macroeconomic fundamentals. Looking forward to the bond market in the third quarter, Great Wall Fund believes that from the domestic economic and policy level, the bond market is relatively favorable; overseas market volatility will still be the main factor affecting the domestic bond market, and the Fed rate hike will have a certain impact on the market. However, the overall impact will gradually weaken; in the bond market supply and demand, interest rate debt supply pressure still exists, domestic and overseas new demand balance is weak, or will affect the bond market performance; asset allocation strategy to choose a high security margin The main varieties, such as convertible bonds in the supply is sufficient, the valuation is low and the cost performance is better than the positive stocks, the allocation can be appropriately increased.

Overseas market is still the main influencing factor

Great Wall Fund believes that overseas market volatility is still the main factor affecting the domestic bond market in the third quarter.

Since the second quarter, the US dollar index has continued to strengthen beyond expectations. After the US bond yield broke through 3% of the key points, it showed an upward trend. The attractiveness of US dollar assets continued to increase. The spread of US and US bonds gradually narrowed to around 70 BP, and the negative pressure on Chinese government bonds. Continued to increase. The US interest rate hike is expected to affect the US dollar bond interest rate trend in the near future.

Medium and long-term bond yields are under pressure, and foreign capital allocation needs may be weakened.

The difference between the local government's special debt limit and the balance and its conversion to local debt is expected to increase the supply of local debt in the second half of the year. The slower issuance rate of interest rate bonds in the first five months, which caused the pressure on the supply of interest rate bonds in the third quarter to rise. In the absence of a significant increase in demand, if the supply in the third quarter accelerates, the medium and long-term bond yields will face some upward pressure.

In addition, the structure of demand for government bonds has been adjusted, and foreign capital has become the main force for increase. In the past few years, the commercial bank is the main holdings of the national debt, but this year, due to the pressure of the bank's debt and the limited debt allocation, commercial banks turned the national debt into a net reduction, while foreign capital became the main holding force of the national debt. Increased the majority of new government bonds in the market. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the US dollar may regain strength, and the interest rate on the bond market will fall. The allocation of domestic bonds by overseas institutions may be weaker than the first half of the year.

Interest rate bonds still have downside space, select high-elastic stocks convertible bonds

Affected by factors such as domestic macroeconomic data and micro-data phased off, interest rate bonds generally fluctuated downward in the second quarter, but the downward trend was small. Subsequent to the further slowdown of macroeconomic growth, bond interest rates still have a downward space.

At the same time, since the second quarter, credit risk events have occurred one after another, which has had a big impact on low- and medium-rated credit bonds. The difficulty of issuing low- and medium-rated credit bonds has soared, and the scale of corporate bond financing has shrunk rapidly. Under the impact of the credit incident, the market's attitude towards low- and medium-rated credit bonds has become more cautious, the yield of credit bonds has risen, the spread of credit bonds has continued to expand, and the spread of medium-low-rated credit bonds has risen sharply.

In terms of convertible bonds, the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was weak in the second quarter. The CSI 300 index fluctuated. Most of the stock indexes have reached the lows in recent years. The stock adjustment has also reached the bottom of the year. The overall market sentiment is weak. Looking forward to the third quarter, if the supply of convertible bonds is gradually increased, and there are more convertible bonds with lower valuations and better performance-price ratio than the positive stocks, the allocation can be appropriately increased. In the choice of convertible bonds, we will evade individual stocks with factors such as pledge liquidation and credit tightening, with a focus on technology and growth stocks.


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